Predictive Accuracy of a Health Risk Appraisal Program Using Mortality Risk Age in 116,927 Korean Men

Health risk appraisal (HRA) is a tool for determining health risk factors and motivating individuals to maintain a healthy lifestyle. We performed this study to describe the HRA algorithm and evaluate the accuracy of an HRA program for 10-yr mortality prediction in Korean men. We used data derived from periodic health examinations of 116,927 male public officials and school personnel aged 20 or older. Risk age and the difference between risk age and calendar age were calculated. We obtained the hazard ratio (HR) of 10-yr mortality according to the calculated age difference. Of the 116,927 subjects, 1,900 (1.6%) died during the 10 yr after the 1992 medical examinations. The HR of 10-yr mortality increased significantly with age difference. Compared with the HR in the reference group (age difference below 2 yr), the HR in the group with a 2- to 6-yr age difference was 1.20 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05 to 1.38) and HR in the group with more than 7-yr age difference was 1.35 (95% CI: 1.14 to 1.75). Risk age is a relatively good predictor of 10-yr mortality in Korean men and may be useful in identifying high-risk middle-aged men for health interventions.